Import PVC demand dampened in Europe, Turkey; will it improve in H2?
Petrotahlil :Data from ChemOrbis Import Statistics reveal that PVC imports to Europe and Turkey witnessed considerable contractions in the first half of 2019 as demand retreated amid growing economic concerns. The sharpest drops were seen in imports of American PVC, meanwhile.
What do the statistics tell us?
Europe
Overall PVC imports into EU28 declined 10% in the January-June period on a yearly basis, data suggest.
US imports suffer the most
US PVC imports, in particular, showed a greater reduction of 30% during the same period in the EU.
For Italy alone, the overall volume slightly increased in the first six months while American PVC imports plunged 45% from a year earlier.
Turkey
When it comes to Turkey’s PVC imports for the January-July period of the year, the overall volume marked the lowest level in the last 10 years for this period, decreasing 18% on a yearly basis.
The country’s PVC imports from the US, meanwhile, were much more significantly down by 30% when compared to the same period of 2018. The additional tariffs Turkey started to apply on US PVC from last year played a role in this visible reduction along with fading buying interest among Turkish buyers.
Is a recovery possible in H2?
Players both in Europe and Turkey are not hopeful of a major recovery in PVC imports in the latter part of the year. The reason rests upon the concerns over the slowing global economy. Economists are downgrading their forecasts for economic growth for several regions.
The International Monetary Fund downgraded the world economic growth to 3.2% in 2019. The European Commission’s 2019 summer forecast also says economic growth in the EU would be 1.4%, down 0.6% points.
Turkey’s economy, meanwhile, fared better than forecast in the second quarter but growth will likely fall far short of the government’s expectations for the full year.
Given the fact that PVC consumption mainly pertains to the economic performance, demand for import cargoes is not expected to catch up the previous years either in the EU or in Turkey.
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